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IPv6 mistakes, was: Re: Looking for an IPv6 naysayer...

On Fri, 11 Feb 2011 12:20:59 -0500, George Bonser <gbonser at seven.com>  
> The thing is that a very few networks account for a very large amount of
> traffic.

Traffic has to have two end points.  Just because the content source  
supports IPv6 does not mean the content request will be.  That's the  
"millions of eyeballs" (aka sheep.)

You don't seem to grasp the full picture... There are 4 parts to the  
1. Content Source
2. Transit network(s)
3. CPE
4. Content Consumer

Fixing the source (be it Facebook, Youtube, or netflix) is rather simple  
in concept -- it's just one network, and doesn't require touching millions  
of devices.  Transit networks are hit-n-miss, but is becoming less of a  
burden.  The CPE on the other hand is a whole other mess... there are  
thousands (into millions) that will need firmware upgrades or complete  
replacement to support IPv6. (That's the cablemodems, dsl modem, Uverse  
RGs, FiOS ONTs, and linksys's and netgears of the world.) And *then* the  
device that actually wants the content has to have support. (that'd be you  
roku, blu-ray player, console, laptop, cellphone, picture frame, etc.)

> What is the natural "churn" rate for CPE for one of the large MSOs?

How often MSO's replace CPE gear? "When it breaks" and "when it's no  
longer compat"  I don't know about your cable company, but TW doesn't  
replace anything unless it's broken.  I've had the same SB5100 for nearly  
a decade. (they did replace the SB3100/4100's a few years back, but they  
were no longer compatible with the network.)

AT&T DSL also doesn't replace CPE's unless they break. (or you buy a new  
one.)  In bridge mode, any modem will do.  It's when the modem is also the  
router (which is most cases today) that it will need attention to support  
IPv6. (in bridge mode, you'll have to fix whatever it's plugged into, but  
that's the customer's problem... off to Best Buy for an IPv6 capable  

> What portion of the MSOs have v6 capable CPE in place right now...

Unknown.  I've not known any MSO to publish those numbers.  Any sane MSO  
is handing out D3 modems even if they are still running a D2 network, so  
new connections (or replacements) should be D3.

> you only need about five

If you're thinking of five major cable operators, they aren't each "one  
network" but are a group of franchises/markets running more or less  
independent of each other.

> Yes, and I mentioned that.  So once you have >50% of the potential
> content sources v6 capable and >50% of the potential eyeballs v6
> capable, you have potentially 25% of internet traffic on v6.  And that
> can be done with the migration of enough networks to count on your
> fingers.

Heh.  No it can't.  You grossly underestimate the work necessary to get  
the eyeballs v6 capable.  If Comcast has to replace as little as 10% of  
their modems, that'd be over 1mil.  That's not going to happen overnight.  
(or even a month.)