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IPv6 mistakes, was: Re: Looking for an IPv6 naysayer...

On Fri, Feb 11, 2011 at 10:00 AM, Scott Helms <khelms at ispalliance.net> wrote:
> Agreed, V4 traffic levels are likely to drop and stay at low levels for
> decades.

I seriously doubt v4 traffic is going to fall off a cliff.  That would
require IPv6 adoption on a large scale over a relatively short period.
 To date, nothing in the v6 verse has happened *quickly*.  Replacement
or software upgrades to millions of CPEs in hundreds of network is not
something that will happen overnight.  Even then, that will not
instantly switch everyone and every device to IPv6.  How many
"connected" devices do you think there are in the average home?  TV?
DVR (stb)? Game console(s)? Netflix streaming thing?

If you're using Windows 7, you're already "IPv6 connected"... IPv6 is
installed by default (and in fact cannot be uninstalled) and
configured with Teredo.  So a lot of people could be using v6 already
and not even know it.

>> Facebook ... So that's 55% of Internet traffic right there.

and making a dent in it means residential transition.  50mil (or
83mil) devices is a lot of shit to replace or reprogram.  Not to
forget the thousands of devices that feed them.

> ... mobile devices

i.e. cellphones... the two largest groups there (iPhone and Android)
support IPv6 already. (in certain versions)

I was saying the same thing about netflix.  PC based streaming can
already be done via IPv6. (ipv6.netflix.com?)  I'm not sure any of my
media devices (tv, consoles, tivo) can do IPv6.  I'd be disappointed
if SONY didn't have the PS3 doing v6.  Tivo doesn't do v6 -- unless
the premier does.  DTV receiver doesn't.  DISH doesn't. (Wii, don't
care. :-))