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IPv6 mistakes, was: Re: Looking for an IPv6 naysayer...

> Fixing the source (be it Facebook, Youtube, or netflix) is rather
> simple
> in concept -- it's just one network, and doesn't require touching
> millions
> of devices.  Transit networks are hit-n-miss, but is becoming less of
> burden.  The CPE on the other hand is a whole other mess... there are
> thousands (into millions) that will need firmware upgrades or complete
> replacement to support IPv6.

I would venture to say that it is likely that most of the CPE deployed
over the past couple of years is capable of supporting v6 even if v6 is
not currently deployed on that CPE.

 (That's the cablemodems, dsl modem, Uverse
> RGs, FiOS ONTs, and linksys's and netgears of the world.) And *then*
> the
> device that actually wants the content has to have support. (that'd be
> you
> roku, blu-ray player, console, laptop, cellphone, picture frame, etc.)

You are "frame dragging" what I said into something I didn't say.  What
I said was that it will take v6 deployment in only a tiny portion of the
number of networks to account for a large amount of the traffic.  There
is a lot of v6 capability that is just sitting there at the moment.  I
never said v4 support would go away, in fact, I said it would be around
for decades.              

> > What is the natural "churn" rate for CPE for one of the large MSOs?
> How often MSO's replace CPE gear? 

That is a different question.  People are always moving, for example,
turning in their old CPE and getting new.  Old ones break and need to be
replaced with a new one.  Let's say the gear they have been handing out
over the past couple of years has had v6 capability.  So not only have
all new deployments had the capability for v6 once the provider turns it
up, a good number of legacy installations have been gaining v6
capability as old gear is changed out for new.

How many CPE units does Comcast go through in a month?  That would be
about the rate of v6 capability being deployed out there even if v6
isn't turned up on it.

> "When it breaks" and "when it's no
> longer compat"  I don't know about your cable company, but TW doesn't
> replace anything unless it's broken.  

Correct, and a certain number of those break every month.  With every
passing month the amount of CPE out there that isn't v6 capable

> I've had the same SB5100 for
> nearly
> a decade. 

This isn't about you or me.  It is about "the net" in aggregate.  V4
will continue to work, and those with older stuff will get v4.  But at
some point there are going to be people who decide to deploy a site that
is v6 only.  It will be "cool" and only "certain" people will be able to
get to the content.  Probably college kids and aging hipsters.  Then
other people will start hearing about it and want access to it ... and
will demand their ISP get them on v6 pronto ;)

> Heh.  No it can't.  You grossly underestimate the work necessary to
> the eyeballs v6 capable.  If Comcast has to replace as little as 10%
> their modems, that'd be over 1mil.  That's not going to happen
> overnight.
> (or even a month.)
> --Ricky

They are constantly replacing them, all the time.  Every day they
replace a few more.  Someone moves, turns in their old cable box, gets a
new one at the new place.  Kid spills milk in it, it gets dropped,
whatever. Old CPE attritions out of the installed base every day, I just
don't know what the annual churn rate is. But I do believe that if IPv6
were enabled in a market today on some carrier, there would be an
installed base of gear right now that could handle it on day one that
would represent an amount of traffic that is not insignificant.