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modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand

On Tue, 2 Apr 2019, Tom Ammon wrote:

> Netflow for historical data is great, but I guess what I am really 
> asking is - how do you anticipate the load that your eyeballs are going 
> to bring to your network, especially in the face of transport tweaks 
> such as QUIC and TCP BBR?

I don't see how QUIC and BBR is going to change how much bandwidth is 
flowing.

If you want to make your eyeballs happy then make sure you're not 
congesting your upstream links. Aim for max 50-75% utilization in 5 minute 
average at peak hour (graph by polling interface counters every 5 
minutes). Depending on your growth curve you might need to initiate 
upgrades to make sure they're complete before utilization hits 75%.

If you have thousands of users then typically just look at the statistics 
per user and extrapolate. I don't believe this has fundamentally changed 
in the past 20 years, this is still best common practice.

If you go into the game of running your links full parts of the day then 
you're into the game of trying to figure out QoE values which might mean 
you spend more time doing that than the upgrade would cost.

-- 
Mikael Abrahamsson    email: swmike at swm.pp.se