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[arin-ppml] NAT444 rumors (was Re: Looking for an IPv6naysayer...)

On Feb 18, 2011, at 11:07 AM, Scott Helms wrote:

> On 2/18/2011 1:53 PM, Franck Martin wrote:
>> http://www.jetcafe.org/~npc/isp/large.html
>> If you take the 5 top US ISPs and get them to do dual stack IPv6, that's 50 million subscribers in the US only.
>> I think google and others will notice some serious traffic happening.
> We're years from the point where any one of them will have more than a tiny fraction of their traffic as IPv6 and that's assuming that all we have to deal with are the known problems.
If by years, you mean 18 months and by tiny fraction you mean more than 10%, then, sure, you are correct.

>> It took a market share of 10 to 20% of Mozilla for web developers to go back to support ALL browsers. Same for mobile web site a 10% surfing rate got many companies to develop web sites for mobiles.
> Not really comparable because in both of those cases users were making a choice, because they perceived some benefit, and hence there was demand to adapt to those new platforms.  There is almost 0 demand for IPv6 from consumers and what is there is from the technologists.  We don't have a situation where the existing infrastructure doesn't work, it does.
I'm betting that after IPv4 runout, users will continue to perceive a benefit in making the choice to connect to the
internet even though they cannot get a unique IPv4 address.

>> If I recall Comcast and Time Warner are participating in IPv6 day. This should create enough eyeballs to show on web analytics graph and provide the shift that makes nat444 irrelevant.
> I wish, but IPv6 day will be much more of a media event than anything else.  Keep in mind that none of these things are what I wish only what I believe to be accurate.
The problem with this type of belief is that it serves to incite others to inaction, leading it to become a self-fulfilling