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[Cryptography] Proof that the NSA does not have a quantum computer capable of attacking public key crypto (yet)

On 2/11/16, Phillip Hallam-Baker <[email protected]> wrote:
> On Thu, Feb 11, 2016 at 2:12 PM, John Levine <[email protected]> wrote:
>>>A,B) Anyone with a QC could use it to break the keys of the wallets
>>>holding $500 million.
>> Which is under 5% of the NSA's annual budget.  Also keep in mind that
>> bitcoins are extremely illiquid.  The largest bitcoin transaction I
>> can find where the buyer got something of identifiable value was a
>> $500K villa in Bali.  (The so-called $147M transaction doesn't count
>> since there's no evidence of goods or services on either side of it.)
>> Fencing a thousand villas seems pretty hard.
>> If I wanted to use my NSA connections or my quantum computer to enrich
>> myself, this doesn't strike me as a particularly good way to go.
> I was asserting that the funds would be diverted for personal
> purposes, not to fund the agency.
> $500 million might be chump change to the agency but Hanssen defected
> for a lot less.

There is only one purpose for an entity
to crack any currency and that's to kill it.

Because any cracked wallets would instantly make
worldwide headlines and the currency would
go to zero within a day.

Depending on the speed of the adversary, you
might be able to migrate crypto fast
enough to save some wallets but the losers
will be throwing realworld pitchforks, that
will roll all the way up the legal politik
chain until the pressure is unbearable.

The entity isn't going to be able to recoup
its costs in a zero market.

Even cracking supposedly dead wallets is risk
of zero without proof of deadness, granny
might still have her mitts on them and be
watching every day.

Since an entity full of people is unlikely to
be able to keep a secret kill secret, they'd
be better off accelerating mining, selling
in a stable market.

Perhaps that's what's happening now... ;)

If an entity has a crack it probably can't use it,
and the same scenario applies if a rogue within
it appropriates it for their own purposes.
And for any independant loner who discovers it.
They only have odds at a few wallets before
they hit the wrong one and news breaks.
And for them it will be all about the lulz.

Either way, digital currencies will come
and go, and are here to stay.

Unless Bitcoin solves its serious scalability
and anonymity issues, people will probably
be slowly trading out of it into something
else within the next 5-10 years anyway.

If that something else is significantly better
and stronger, you might see some cracking then
in attempt to cash out. BTC from 1250 to sub 200
didn't seem to trigger any.