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Practical guide to predicting latency effects?

Hey Adam,

Iâ??m looking for a practical guide â?? i.e. specifically NOT an academic
> paper, thanks anyway â?? to predicting the effect of increased (or decreased)
> latency on my userâ??s applications.

This makes answering difficult. Because you may be looking for a simpler
answer than what is available.

Specifically, I want to estimate how much improvement there will be in
> {bandwidth, application XYZ responsiveness, protocol ABC goodput, whatever}
> if I decrease the RTT between the user and the server by 10msec, or by
> 20msec, or by 40msec.

TCP single flow throughput is TcpWindow / RTT. But all modern stacks have
TcpWindow scaling (does not mean all devices have), allowing it to grow
beyond the default 0xffff. However, most TCP implementations burst window
growth, and window grows exponentially, this means if there is speed
step-down in-transit (100G => 10G, or such, which is below sender's rate)
then transit device needs to be able to slurp the window growth amount of
bytes, otherwise there is packet loss and window cannot grow and single
flow cannot attain the max_rate. This means with lower RTT you need to
buffer less, and devices with tiny buffers can be a lot cheaper than
devices with large buffers.
Even though most OS support window scaling, there is often a limit to how
large it is allowed to grow, because it's an attack vector for DRAM DOS.

Example1, no window scaling, 100ms:
0xffff bytes / 100ms == 5.2Mbps

Example2, no window scaling, 60ms:
0xffff bytes / 60ms == 8.7Mbps

Example3, no window scaling, 5ms:
0xffff bytes / 5ms == 104.8Mbps

I believe you can multiply the numbers by 8x, to get performance your
modern window users experience. As I believe windows restricts window-size
by limiting allowable scaling factor to 8x.

Example4, arbitrary window scaling, 100ms, 10Gbps receiver, 100Gbps sender:
100ms * 10Gbps == 125MB, you need tcp window to scale to 125MB to achieve
10Gbps on this path, and you need step-down device 100G=>10G to have 62.5MB
buffer, while window grows from 62.5MB to 125MB and sender burst that
data @ 100Gbps.

The Example4 is easy to fix, by not bursting the window growth, but by
rather doing bandwidth estimation and send the window growth at estimated
receiver rate, removing almost all need for transit buffering. However if
we were to migrate to such congestion control, classical congestion control
like reno, would out-compete it during congestion, so well behaved TCP
streams would get increasingly little capacity as their bandwidth
estimation would keep going down, and reno would win increasingly more

Ultimately, this goes into MY calculator â?? we have the usual north-american
> duopoly on last-mile consumer internet here; Iâ??m connected directly to only
> one of the two.  Thereâ??s a cost $X to improve connectivity so Iâ??m peered
> with both, how do I tell if it will be worthwhile?

Based on your questions I'd estimate you do not have a business case to
latency optimize if it carries a premium. The most to benefit would
probably be for competitive gamers, but they may be bad users on average
being subsidized by light users, so it's not entirely clear if you want to
invest to attract them.

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