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modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand

An article was published recently that discusses the possible impact of Cloud-based gaming on last-mile capacity requirements, as well as external connections. The author suggests that decentralized video services won't be the only big user of last-mile capacity. 

From: "Tom Ammon" <thomasammon at gmail.com> 
To: "NANOG" <nanog at nanog.org> 
Sent: Tuesday, April 2, 2019 9:54:47 AM 
Subject: modeling residential subscriber bandwidth demand 

How do people model and try to project residential subscriber bandwidth demands into the future? Do you base it primarily on historical data? Are there more sophisticated approaches that you use to figure out how much backbone bandwidth you need to build to keep your eyeballs happy? 
Netflow for historical data is great, but I guess what I am really asking is - how do you anticipate the load that your eyeballs are going to bring to your network, especially in the face of transport tweaks such as QUIC and TCP BBR? 

Tom Ammon 
M: (801) 784-2628 
thomasammon at gmail.com 

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