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"It's the end of the world as we know it" -- REM
On 4/24/13 1:55 AM, Mikael Abrahamsson wrote:
> On Wed, 24 Apr 2013, Geoff Huston wrote:
>> However, personally I find it a little hard to place a high
>> probability on Tony's projected exhaustion date of August this year.
>> I also have to qualify that by noting that while I think that a
>> runout of the remaining 40 M addresses within 4 months is improbable,
>> its by no means impossible. If we saw a re-run of the address
>> consumption rates that ARIN experienced in 2010, then it's not
>> outside the bounds of plausibility that ARIN will be handing out its
>> last address later this year.
> I also find it a bit strange that the runout in APNIC and RIPE was
> very different. APNIC address allocation rate accelerated at the end,
> whereas RIPE exhaustion date kept creeping forward in time instead of
> closer in time, giving me the impression that there wasn't any panic
apnic allocation reserved the final /8 for /22 maximal allocations.
Couple that with some qualifying very large assignments towards the end
of stage two e.g between feb 1 and april 14 2011 7 provider assignments
combined soaked up more than 2 /8s and you get rapid runout towards the
> Has anyone done any detailed analysis of the last year of allocation
> behaviour for each of these regions, trying to understand the
> difference in behaviour? I'd be very interested in this.
> My belief (not well founded) is that ARIN runout will look more like
> RIPE region than APNIC...