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[arin-ppml] NAT444 rumors (was Re: Looking for an IPv6 naysayer...)

On Feb 22, 2011, at 4:42 PM, Tony Hain wrote:

> Seriously, some people will not move until the path they are on is already
> burning, which is why they did nothing over the last 5 years despite knowing
> that the IANA pool was exhausting much faster than they had wanted to
> believe. It took getting within months of exhausting the IANA pool before
> the crowd woke up and noticed the path was on fire. Now you want 'just a
> little more'... after which it will be 'just a little more'.

This won't go on forever.  The "price" of IPv4 has been kept artificially low for the past decade, through a RIR-based system of rationing.  There was never an immediate incentive to migrate.  If we really wanted to motivate people before they reached the precipice, we should have increasingly raised the cost of an IPv4 address.

Now, IPv4 exhaustion has effectively raised that cost for us, and people are motivated to migrate to IPv6.  But since we didn't force this situation sooner, we now also have to deal with the effects of exhaustion.  That's all I'm talking about.  IPv4 hacks will not be better or cheaper than IPv6, and they're nothing to fear in terms of IPv6 adoption.