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[arin-ppml] NAT444 rumors (was Re: Looking for an IPv6naysayer...)

On Feb 18, 2011, at 10:14 AM, George Bonser wrote:

>> From: Jeff Wheeler 
>> Sent: Friday, February 18, 2011 8:13 AM
>> To: nanog at nanog.org
>> Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] NAT444 rumors (was Re: Looking for an
>> IPv6naysayer...)
>> I suspect Google, Microsoft, and others have already figured out a
>> beneficial (to everyone) way to monetize this.  If I'm an ISP with
>> working IPv6, and my competitor in a given region is an ISP without
>> IPv6, I'd like to advertise to all the end-users of that ISP whenever
>> they go to a search engine that sells ads.
> One thing they can do, and I would live to see some popular destination
> site do this, is to say something like:
> "we have this really cool new thing we are rolling out but, sorry, it is
> available only via IPv6" or "we will continue supporting all of today's
> features on v4 but all new features will be rolled out on v6 only".  
> That would result in eyeballs demanding access to that content and
> nothing drives innovation like customer demand does.

Eyeball demand on ISPs will _NOT_ be the lagging problem in IPv6

The consumer side laggage will be CPE and Consumer Eelectronics.

Consumer ISPs are going to be the first ones forced to put subscribers
on IPv6 whether they're ready or not because:

	+	Residential Internet Services is the single largest address consumer
	+	They pay less for their services than any other class of user
	+	In many cases they have few or no choices in provider selection
	+	They provide the narrowest margins

These factors mean that providers that are strictly residential will run
out of addresses faster than other providers. Providers which are in
multiple lines of business, including residential are likely to start
harvesting residential addresses for higher-paying services.

The question is whether content providers will recognize and prepare
for this reality before it arrives, or, react to it afterwards.